Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
